Political Risk & Election-Related Violence

In 2024, over 50 countries that are home to more than half of the planet’s population are slated to hold national elections.¹

Elections are the backbone of pluralistic societies, yet in recent years, the rising tide of political violence has become an unfortunate reality of the global political climate. In all corners of the world, countries with varying political systems are seeing an uptick in political violence, especially around the time of critical elections. Consider the following:

• At the start of 2023, global political risk was at a five-year high.²
• Almost 66% of Americans expressed concern that violence could ensue after the presidential election.³
• Eight West African countries have had military coups since 2020.⁴
• From 2022 to 2023, France saw a 12-fold increase in violence against elected officials.⁵
• From 2022 to 2023, France saw a 12-fold increase in violence against elected officials.⁶
• Mexico’s 2024 election was the deadliest yet, with 37 candidates murdered and over 800 injured. ⁷

Though the reasons for political violence vary by region, these events have a tangible effect on people, communities, and countries. Geopolitical trends are dynamic and impact everything from people’s safety and wellbeing to the stability of global supply chains and economies. From an insurance perspective, individuals and businesses should be aware of how political risks at all levels – from local, to national, and global – shape their risk mitigation needs. Should significant political events like elections, legislative actions, or judicial decisions devolve to violence, being aware of the risks can help individuals, families, and organizations formulate a plan of action that they can mobilize if a crisis does occur. 

With elections specifically, violence may not be solely confined to polling day. The period around elections presents a range of potential risks, including:

• Pre-election: voter intimidation, campaign rally violence, efforts to disrupt election preparation
• Election day: disruption and suppression of voting and results tabulation by targeting polling places, voters, observers, etc.
• Post-election: announcement of results is often a flashpoint for civil unrest; others include delays in announcement, swearing in of newly elected government officials

Exactly how these risks play out on the ground varies, but understanding the potential for and type of election-related violence is crucial for you to able to adjust plans and procedures to reflect changes in the risk environment.

As a starting point, consider these general measures when you formulate a plan to minimize your exposure to election violence:

• Reduce staff in offices or residences in areas of heightened risk
• Use alternative routes for travel to avoid the disturbances
• Strengthen information gathering to avoid rallies and other flashpoints
• Increase communication check ins with employees and family members
• Avoid holding large events or programs — except for election-related activities

Given the risk of civil disorder, it’s essential for companies and families to update safe haven and evacuation plans during election periods. Offices and residences should maintain supplies and emergency equipment that allows personnel to shelter in place or stand fast for an extended period –typically 72 hours at a minimum — in the event that violence makes movement too risky. Update and refresh evacuation plans with regularity, though remember that in the event of widespread violence, standing fast/sheltering in place at a safe location may be better than risking exposure to violence if you attempt to leave the area.

While there isn’t a substitute for safety plans, external resources may also prove to be essential in helping you manage and respond to election related risks. In particular, security assistance and evacuation services are a valuable source of information and guidance — and can provide critical support in the event the environment deteriorates to the point that evacuation becomes necessary.

PROVIDING STEADFAST GUIDANCE

Election-related violence is an unfortunate reality, but understanding its potential impacts puts you in an improved position to mobilize the proper plans, procedures, and resources so you’re better able to protect what you most value as events unfold. The Baldwin Group’s experts can help you develop the appropriate resiliency and response plans, both domestically and internationally. Whether you’re an individual, a business owner, or have a combination of needs, we’ll dedicate time to learning your needs and aligning you with the appropriate insurance and risk mitigation strategy.

1. Associated Press, “Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024. The year will test even the most robust democracies,” Jill Lawless, January 10, 2024 ↩︎
2. Verisk, “The Trendline – Climate-driven unrest escalates in Europe in 2023-Q1,” Jess Middleton, May 2, 2023 ↩︎
3. Reuters, “Two-thirds in US fear violence could follow election, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds,” Jason Lange and Andy Sullivan, May 23, 2024 ↩︎
4. Associated Press, “Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024. The year will test even the most robust democracies,” Jill Lawless, January 10, 2024 ↩︎
5. Associated Press, “Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024. The year will test even the most robust democracies,” Jill Lawless, January 10, 2024 ↩︎
6. Foreign Affairs, The Rising Tide of Political Violence: An Attempted Assassination of Trump Is Part of a Global Trend,” Rachel Kleinfeld, July 19, 2024 ↩︎
7. Foreign Affairs, The Rising Tide of Political Violence: An Attempted Assassination of Trump Is Part of a Global Trend,” Rachel Kleinfeld, July 19, 2024 ↩︎