What a stronger El Niño season means for your flood risk

The Baldwin Group is closely tracking this season’s flood outlook for clients across the country, with a particular focus on California and Washington. Flooding is one of the most common and costly natural disasters in the United States, and it is not limited to coastal or high-risk flood zones.

El Nino in perspective

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirmed in June 2026 that El Nino has developed, with a 63% chance it strengthens into a very strong event between November 2026 and January 2027. The impact differs by region:

• California: El Nino winters typically bring wetter-than-normal conditions, with the heaviest rain expected along the coast between January and March, raising the risk of flooding and mudslides.
• Washington: The outlook is less predictable. Most El Nino winters bring drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest, but the strongest events on record have occasionally reversed that pattern, bringing heavy rain and high snowpack instead. Atmospheric river events and king tide flooding along the coast and Puget Sound add further risk regardless of the seasonal forecast.

Whichever way the season breaks, flood risk is real this year for clients in both states, and it’s worth planning for now.

Timing matters

Most flood insurers, including the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), require a standard 30-day waiting period before a new policy takes effect. Waiting until a storm is on the radar will likely be too late.

Three steps to take today

1. Confirm whether you currently carry a flood policy, and review your coverage limits if you do.
2. Connect with our team to discuss your options if you don’t have flood coverage — regardless of what state you live in.
3. Treat this as a priority if you’re in California or Washington, given the current seasonal outlook and the 30-day wait.

Flooding has touched almost every part of the country:

• 99% of U.S. counties have experienced flooding in just the last two decades
• Only about 4% of homeowners carry flood insurance
• More than 20% of flood insurance claims come from properties located outside high-risk flood zones
• First Street Foundation estimates that 12 million properties outside FEMA-designated flood zones now carry significant flood risk

What flood insurance typically covers

Typically covered

• Your home’s structure, including the foundation, electrical, HVAC, and plumbing systems, water heaters, built-in appliances, and permanently installed fixtures such as carpeting, paneling, and cabinets.
• Personal belongings, including furniture, clothing, electronics, and portable appliances, up to the limits stated in your policy (contents stored in basements or below base flood elevation requirements are typically excluded).

Typically not covered

• Damage caused by moisture, mildew, or mold that could have been prevented
• Additional living expenses, such as hotel stays or meals, if your home becomes uninhabitable
• Property outside the home, such as decks, patios, sheds, fences, and landscaping
• Cars or other vehicles, which are typically covered by auto insurance
• Cash, precious metals, or important documents
• Pool equipment or pool damage

It’s important to work with your trusted advisor to confirm exactly what your specific policy covers.

If a flood occurs

• Document damage with photos or video, including standing water levels, before discarding wet or damaged belongings.
• Complete a proof of loss form with your adjuster within 60 days of the flood.
• Understand how your estimate is calculated: actual cash value (based on depreciated value) or replacement cost value (based on the cost to repair or replace).
• Know your deductible. Flood policies typically carry separate deductibles for the building and for contents.
• Expect the process to take time. According to FEMA, it can take four to eight weeks for a claim to be paid.

View additional flood resources from our Private Risk team.